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Friday, August 23, 2024
 

MANAGING DIRECTOR:
Scott Carrithers
 
PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE:
Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty • Kevin Doyle • Mark Tranckino
Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • David Farris • Lonnie Harris • Brian Schaff
Jeff Macy • Josh Kiefer • Tom Toburen • Todd Czinege

US Treasury Market
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
08/16/24 5.33 5.21 4.97 4.48 4.05 3.85 3.75 3.79 3.88 4.24 4.14
08/19/24 5.34 5.19 4.97 4.50 4.06 3.86 3.75 3.78 3.87 4.23 4.12
08/20/24 5.31 5.17 4.91 4.43 3.98 3.79 3.68 3.72 3.80 4.17 4.06
08/21/24 5.30 5.15 4.89 4.39 3.93 3.74 3.66 3.70 3.80 4.18 4.08
08/22/24 5.31 5.17 4.94 4.46 4.01 3.81 3.72 3.77 3.85 4.22 4.13

The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P.  As of: close of business 08/22/2024.

                                                                                                                                                                                        

 

What Are You Waiting For?
 

Several officials saw case for cutting at July Meeting

Vast Majority saw a September cut as likely appropriate

Almost all Fed officials expected contained disinflation

Some say higher risk of more serious labor deterioration

Downside risks to employment were seen as increased
 

These are the headlines from the FOMC minutes released this week.  Later this morning, Chairman Powell will be giving a much anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he is expected to lay the groundwork for a September interest rate cut.  As always, the market has moved ahead of the actual cuts as we have seen the 2-year Treasury drop 75 basis points since July 1.  The Bloomberg WIRP (World Interest Rate Probabilities) is currently pricing in approximately 225 basis points in rate cuts over the next 2 years.  This is the shift in rates we have been talking about since last year and our message remains the same. Lock in higher rates for as long as possible. 

Below is an 8y 3.5y annual callable that locks in 4.06% until February 2028 which currently picks up 30 basis points to a 3.5-year Treasury.


Source: Bloomberg, LP / Indications only – Subject to change and availability without notice.



This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

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