Wednesday, August 16, 2023 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 08/09/23 | 5.35 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.35 | 4.81 | 4.44 | 4.14 | 4.08 | 4.01 | 4.34 | 4.17 |
| 08/10/23 | 5.36 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.33 | 4.85 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 4.18 | 4.11 | 4.43 | 4.25 |
| 08/11/23 | 5.38 | 5.43 | 5.48 | 5.34 | 4.90 | 4.58 | 4.30 | 4.25 | 4.16 | 4.45 | 4.26 |
| 08/14/23 | 5.38 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.37 | 4.97 | 4.65 | 4.36 | 4.30 | 4.19 | 4.47 | 4.29 |
| 08/15/23 | 5.37 | 5.43 | 5.51 | 5.36 | 4.96 | 4.65 | 4.37 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 4.50 | 4.32 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close of business 8/15/2023
Is it Time to Extend?
A couple concepts caught my attention this week, both highlighting where we are in the interest rate cycle. First, 10-year Treasury yields are within five basis points of where they were in October. This is significant because October was the highest yield since 2008. The return to decades-long highs in certain Treasuries follows several “head fakes” lately, where yields have fallen briefly before coming back.
Secondly, 30-year Treasury real yield just topped 2% for the first time since 2011. Real yield is defined as nominal yield (30-year UST in this case) minus the rate of inflation. This speaks volumes about the state of interest rates – long bond yields are up while inflation is sinking, as recent economic data has shown progress in that fight. In fact, this real yield number bottomed out in negative territory for a couple of years before the Fed began tightening.
These ideas suggest there is value in bonds that we haven’t seen in over ten years, especially when you look a little further out on the curve. Country Club Bank owns and offers the below taxable new issue bonds that came to market earlier this week. The four blocks allow for duration extension with eight year calls, long finals and are all offered at par. Please reach out to your CCB representative with questions or comments.
Indications only, subject to change and availability
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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