| Friday, March 14, 2025 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 03/07/25 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.01 | 4.09 | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.64 | 4.60 |
| 03/10/25 | 4.30 | 4.28 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.97 | 4.09 | 4.22 | 4.58 | 4.54 |
| 03/11/25 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 4.23 | 4.03 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 4.04 | 4.16 | 4.28 | 4.63 | 4.60 |
| 03/12/25 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 4.06 | 3.96 | 3.99 | 4.03 | 4.19 | 4.27 | 4.62 | 4.59 |
| 03/13/25 | 4.28 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 3.95 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.31 | 4.66 | 4.63 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close of business 3/13/2025.
Recent Selloff in Municipals
- The municipal bond market has experienced its biggest sell-off in over two years, causing valuations to drop and creating a buying opportunity for investors who can tolerate the volatility.
- Yields on long-dated state and local government bonds are currently around 90% of similarly-dated Treasury rates, making tax-exempt debt relatively cheap.
- The recent cheapness in the municipal bond market is attributed to a selloff, increased supply of new bond sales, and wealthy investors liquidating their holdings to pay tax bills.
The municipal bond market’s biggest sell off in more than two years has caused valuations to tumble, opening a buying window for investors able to withstand the volatility.
Yields on long-dated state and local government bonds are hovering around 90% of similarly-dated Treasury rates, the most since November 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Municipal to Treasury ratio is a measure of relative value and the higher that percentage, the cheaper tax-exempt debt is comparatively. Since the start of 2024, the 30-year ratio has been about 84% on average, the data shows. There is a similar trend for bonds that mature in a decade. That ratio jumped to about 70.6%, making it the cheapest entry point this year
The supply and demand dynamic is a headwind for the municipal market this week as the volume of new bond sales was poised to increase. Next weeks projected issuance is over 10 billion above the long term 8 billion weekly issuance average.
Additionally, in March, wealthy investors tend to liquidate their municipal holdings to pay tax bills as the April deadline for filing approaches, which also may contribute to the weakness.
Below is Bloomberg’s AAA Municipal bond Index as a percentage of treasuries over the past year, including today. Green represents higher ratios and relative cheapness.
Please reach out to your Country Club Bank representative to discuss strategies and opportunities that are a good fit for your bank.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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