Friday, January 27, 2023 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 01/20/23 | 4.39 | 4.67 | 4.82 | 4.70 | 4.17 | 3.83 | 3.56 | 3.52 | 3.48 | 3.77 | 3.66 |
| 01/23/23 | 4.55 | 4.65 | 4.82 | 4.70 | 4.23 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 3.56 | 3.51 | 3.80 | 3.68 |
| 01/24/23 | 4.55 | 4.65 | 4.85 | 4.67 | 4.21 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 3.52 | 3.45 | 3.72 | 3.60 |
| 01/25/23 | 4.52 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 4.65 | 4.13 | 3.83 | 3.55 | 3.49 | 3.44 | 3.72 | 3.59 |
| 01/26/23 | 4.47 | 4.66 | 4.83 | 4.67 | 4.18 | 3.89 | 3.59 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.77 | 3.64 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change.
This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, LP. As of: close of business 01/26/2023
Economic Outlook
The Bond market of 2022 is finally in our rear view mirror and that’s one good thing everyone can agree on. On February 1st, the highly anticipated first FOMC meeting of the year is scheduled. The expectation is that the committee will raise funds by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 4.50%-4.75%. If this comes to fruition, the next question is likely will the slowdown in pace signal a fed pivot? Sixty seven economists were asked where the Fed Funds Target rate is likely to be over the next two years and the breakdown is shown below. The majority believe there will be a 25bps hike in both February and March taking us to the range of 4.75%-5.00%. The next 3 quarters, however, opinions start to vary.
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In 2Q, 30 participants anticipate a pause at 5.00% while 23 expect another 25 bps hike and 10 expect a cut in rates.
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In 3Q, 23 still expect to be at 5.25% while 24 expect 5.00% and 17 expect to be cutting rates.
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4Q shows even more movement with 13 sticking at 5.25%, 21 at 5.00% and 32 believing rates will be heading lower.
We believe the time is now to figure out where your interest rate bias lies and prepare your portfolio accordingly. Please reach out to your CCB representative to discuss options.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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