| Wednesday, March 6, 2024 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 02/28/24 | 5.39 | 5.40 | 5.33 | 5.01 | 4.64 | 4.44 | 4.26 | 4.29 | 4.27 | 4.54 | 4.41 |
| 02/29/24 | 5.40 | 5.38 | 5.33 | 5.00 | 4.62 | 4.42 | 4.25 | 4.27 | 4.25 | 4.52 | 4.38 |
| 03/01/24 | 5.39 | 5.38 | 5.30 | 4.95 | 4.53 | 4.33 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.45 | 4.33 |
| 03/04/24 | 5.39 | 5.38 | 5.33 | 4.99 | 4.60 | 4.39 | 4.20 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 4.48 | 4.35 |
| 03/05/24 | 5.37 | 5.37 | 5.31 | 4.95 | 4.56 | 4.34 | 4.15 | 4.16 | 4.15 | 4.42 | 4.29 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close of business 3/05/2024.
Second Chance to Invest at Higher Rates
Treasury rates reached a peak on 10/19/2023 after the most recent Fed tightening cycle that began on 3/16/2022 and ended over a year later on 7/26/2023. The yield on the 10-year Treasury (TSY) on 10/19/2023 topped out at 5.00%. Rates had not been that high since June 2007, over a year prior to the Great Recession. That was almost 17 years ago. For a historical perspective of the highs and lows of treasury rates during this time see Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1
Source: Bloomberg, LLC
The light blue line at the top of Exhibit 1 is 6/12/2007, a year before the great recession. The dark blue line, also at the top, is 10/19/2023. The 10yr TSY rate topped out here at 5.00%. The green line represents today’s rates and indicates that even though interest rates have come down from the highs seen last October, they are still at a relative high point over the last 17 years with the 10yr TSY at 4.25%.
Something happened, as you may remember, along the way to 4.25%. The 10yr TSY rate didn’t just come down 75 bps from 10/19/2023 to today. The 10yr TSY actually bottomed out at 3.80%, just prior to the end of the year on 12/27/2023, a 120 bp move down in rates from 10/19/2023. Since 12/27, the 10yr TSY has come back UP 45 bps. This is almost a 40% retracement of the big move we saw in the 4th quarter of last year and can be seen in Exhibit 2. We believe this move gives investors a second chance, or better entry point, to invest at higher rates vs. what we saw less than 3 months ago at the end of 2023.
Exhibit 2
Source: Bloomberg, LLC
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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