Wednesday, July 9, 2025 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
07/01/25 | 4.26 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 4.00 | 3.77 | 3.74 | 3.83 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 4.77 | 4.77 |
07/02/25 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 4.00 | 3.79 | 3.76 | 3.87 | 4.05 | 4.28 | 4.81 | 4.80 |
07/03/25 | 4.23 | 4.36 | 4.30 | 4.08 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.13 | 4.35 | 4.87 | 4.86 |
07/07/25 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.09 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.15 | 4.38 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
07/08/25 | 4.30 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.11 | 3.89 | 3.86 | 3.97 | 4.17 | 4.40 | 4.93 | 4.93 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close of business 7/8/2025.
A Tried-and-True Strategy
Another month of kicking the can down the road for a cut from the Fed. July was long expected to be the month we’d see some action, but the odds appear to be against that happening now. As domestic and international headlines moved rates lower in June, economic data and tariff talks have erased those gains with yields up again.
The shape of curve looks a lot more normal than a year ago, thanks to a 2024 assist from the Fed. We also believe yields remain attractive when compared to the last two decades and specifically given the current cycle. The future is unknown, but if history repeats itself, yields could be on their way down. Additionally, there could be other factors that impact the bank balance sheet, like credit concerns. Typically, banks are able to offset losses in the loan portfolio with gains in the bond portfolio, but banks as a whole have still been light on the buy side in their bond portfolios.
Consider layering in options like 3-7 year Treasuries, high quality 10-15 year BQ or Taxable Muni’s or 6-8 year average life Seasoned MBS pools for additional yield. Dollar cost averaging with slow and steady activity in portfolios has been a successful strategy over the years while taking the guesswork out of trying to time the market. Take a look at several great opportunities available across a few sectors within the fixed income market.
Indications only, subject to change and availability without notice
*# | Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | YTM |
1 | USTN | 3.875 | 7/15/2028 | 3.790 |
2 | USTN | 3.625 | 8/31/2029 | 3.860 |
3 | USTN | 4.625 | 9/30/2030 | 3.930 |
4 | USTN | 3.750 | 8/31/2031 | 4.030 |
5 | USTN | 2.750 | 8/15/2032 | 4.120 |
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value