| Wednesday, March 12, 2025 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 03/05/25 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 4.25 | 4.07 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.08 | 4.18 | 4.28 | 4.61 | 4.57 |
| 03/06/25 | 4.31 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 3.96 | 3.97 | 4.06 | 4.17 | 4.28 | 4.62 | 4.58 |
| 03/07/25 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.01 | 4.09 | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.64 | 4.60 |
| 03/10/25 | 4.30 | 4.28 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.97 | 4.09 | 4.22 | 4.58 | 4.54 |
| 03/11/25 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 4.23 | 4.03 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 4.04 | 4.16 | 4.28 | 4.63 | 4.60 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close of business 3/11/2025.
Tariff policy is expected to significantly impact the U.S. budget deficit and our Treasury bond market. The 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with the additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods (bringing the total to 20%), are poised to generate substantial revenue but also create economic challenges. While some experts project they’ll raise as much as $1.5 trillion over the 2026-2035 period, others predict negative output/consequences which could reduce this figure by $300-360 billion. For instance, Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that real GDP growth will be 0.6% lower in 2025, with the U.S. economy persistently 0.3-0.4% smaller in the long term, equivalent to an annual loss of $80-110 billion in 2024 terms. This economic contraction could lead to reduced tax revenues and increased government spending on social programs, potentially offsetting the initial revenue gains from tariffs.
Meanwhile, the Treasury bond market has migrated to materially lower yields. The 10yr US Treasury Note yield has dropped 60bps since a recent high on Jan 14th. Does this interest rate path suggest that bond investors are not convinced of any lasting inflation threat from tariffs? Or is the bond market weighing the potential concerns about economic growth? Investors are uncertain and market volatility indicates an investing public which is continuously reassessing the long-term implications of this policy on our economy and fiscal health.
While tariffs may generate significant revenue in the short term, the potential for lower employment and decreased consumer spending could offset these gains if sufficient growth does not follow. As markets grapple with competing outcomes, keen-eyed investors will have ample opportunities to buy or sell on the news of the day. Your moment will come. Know what you want/need and be ready to buy it or sell it. Everyone is going to get a bite of this apple.
Call your CCB Capital Markets rep for further discussion about markets and specific investing ideas.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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