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Friday, June 27, 2025
 

MANAGING DIRECTOR:
Scott Carrithers
 
PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE:
Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty • Mark Tranckino • Brian Schaff
Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • David Farris • Jeff Macy 
Josh Kiefer • Todd Czinege • Trey Valentine • Cody Kreutziger

US Treasury Market
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
06/20/25 4.16 4.31 4.32 4.07 3.91 3.86 3.96 4.16 4.38 4.90 4.89
06/23/25 4.13 4.27 4.25 4.02 3.86 3.81 3.91 4.11 4.35 4.88 4.88
06/24/25 4.11 4.27 4.24 4.02 3.83 3.76 3.87 4.06 4.30 4.84 4.84
06/25/25 4.11 4.30 4.25 3.99 3.78 3.75 3.85 4.05 4.29 4.84 4.83
06/26/25 4.10 4.32 4.24 3.96 3.72 3.69 3.80 3.99 4.24 4.80 4.80

The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P.  As of: close of business 6/26/2025.
                                                                                                                                                                                      


Sounding Like a Broken Record

We have made it halfway through the year and the Feds theme remains the same, lower rates are coming.  Last week they shared an updated DOT plot from the Fed reflecting the median dots for each of the next three year ends: 2025 - 3.875%, 2026 - 3.625% and 2027 - 3.375%.  Inflation seems to have stabilized and the employment report and ISM data are consistent with a slowdown in the economy.  

Currently, The WIRP (World Interest Rate Probabilities) is pricing in a cut at the September meeting which is backed by Fed commentary saying they need more time to assess what the tariffs will do to the economy.  Our investment strategy also remains the same, considering options with a combination of higher coupons and call protection.  Options for this strategy are shown in the second graph below. All are examples of bonds with 2 years of call protection.
 
 


This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

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