| Wednesday, July 3, 2024 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 06/26/24 | 5.32 | 5.37 | 5.35 | 5.13 | 4.74 | 4.52 | 4.34 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.57 | 4.46 |
| 06/27/24 | 5.32 | 5.37 | 5.34 | 5.11 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.30 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.53 | 4.42 |
| 06/28/24 | 5.33 | 5.36 | 5.33 | 5.12 | 4.76 | 4.55 | 4.38 | 4.37 | 4.40 | 4.66 | 4.56 |
| 07/01/24 | 5.37 | 5.36 | 5.32 | 5.11 | 4.75 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.43 | 4.46 | 4.73 | 4.62 |
| 07/02/24 | 5.36 | 5.37 | 5.31 | 5.08 | 4.74 | 4.55 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.43 | 4.71 | 4.60 |
The data in the table above is static as of the time it was pulled, so rates may have changed. Treat all data in this table and PMR as indications only and availability is
always subject to change. This information was pulled manually from sources we believe to be reliable. New source, as of 12/12/2022, Bloomberg, L.L.P. As of: close
of business 07/02/2024.
Recent Financial Headlines
- The Steepening of the Yield Curve May Have Just Started (Bloomberg Markets Live Blog)
- Fed’s Jerome Powell Turns Dial Toward Interest-Rate Cut Later This Year (WSJ.com)
- Bear Steepeners, Equities, and Inflation (Bloomberg News)
- Fed’s Goolsbee Makes Case for Rate Cut in Coming Months, Citing ‘Warning Signs’ of a Slowdown (MarketWatch.com)
These four articles seemingly contradict one another. Two of the articles make the case rates are heading down, while the others suggest rates are on the rise as the yield curve steepens.
Keeping updated on financial markets pundits’ opinions can be informative and thought provoking, but it is not always helpful when deciding how to manage your bond portfolio and balance sheet as a whole. Too much can lead to ‘paralysis by analysis.’
Sometimes, a clearer view into the future can be found looking into the past. The following chart illustrates two different yield curves and how they moved from one year to the next.
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
The June 2007 and August 2019 curves come when rates were peaking. These curves would become positively sloped again in short time. One year later, rates were materially lower and curves steep.
This Friday, July 5th, will mark two full years of the current yield curve’s inverted shape. While no one can definitively predict when this will end, examining trends and cycles of the past might help in providing future guidance.
Two handy tools to set your balance sheet up for a profitable future are regression analysis and the below decision matrix shown below. Contact your CMG or AMG representative for further discussion on the best action to take now.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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