Wednesday, September 20, 2017
MANAGING DIRECTOR: Scott Carrithers   PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE: Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty Robert Brickson • Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris •  Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler  Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer • Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer

US Treasury Market
Date	1 mo	3 mo	6 mo	1 yr	2 yr	3 yr	5 yr	7 yr	10 yr	20 yr	30 yr
9/13/17	.99	1.04	1.16	1.27	1.35	1.48	1.78	2.01	2.20	2.53	2.79
9/14/17	.99	1.05	1.17	1.28	1.37	1.50	1.79	2.01	2.20	2.52	2.77
9/15/17	.98	1.05	1.17	1.30	1.39	1.53	1.81	2.04	2.20	2.52	2.77
9/18/17	.96	1.05	1.18	1.30	1.40	1.54	1.83	2.06	2.23	2.56	2.80
9/19/17	.97	1.04	1.19	1.31	1.40	1.55	1.84	2.07	2.24	2.57	2.81

                   

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 9/19/17

____________________________________________________________________________________________

T Minus 3 Hours

We are on the heels of today’s Fed announcement.  At 1PM CST the FOMC will conclude their meeting and everyone is anxiously awaiting the plan for the Fed’s balance sheet- how much and how soon?  Additionally, we have been watching the probability of the next rate hike move closer, with the December meeting having a probability of over 50% now.  Just over one month ago on August 16^th, at the time of the release of the July FOMC Minutes, it wasn’t until March 2018 that there was over a 50% probability of a hike.  In the past five weeks leading into this rate hike probability climbing, there has not been lack of market volatility.  Though MoM we are almost unchanged on the 10YR USTN and the spread on 2-10YR USTN has narrowed 7bps.  If Yellen speaks to a December rate hike, yields will likely move higher almost immediately.

We will see what unfolds in just a few hours.  In the meantime, if you are of the mindset that rates will rise after the meeting and could stay there until December or longer, and you are in a situation to look at taking gains or need to get rid of problem bonds in your portfolio before year-end– call your Capital Markets representative to help with a last minute clean up.

Source: Bloomberg, L.P.

 

This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value