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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
 
MANAGING DIRECTOR:
Scott Carrithers
 
PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE:
Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty
Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris •  Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler • Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer
 Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • Chuck Honeywell • Gus Koppen
 

US Treasury Market
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
02/05/19 2.39 2.42 2.50 2.56 2.53 2.50 2.51 2.60 2.71 2.89 3.03
02/06/19 2.40 2.42 2.50 2.56 2.52 2.50 2.50 2.59 2.70 2.88 3.03
02/07/19 2.43 2.42 2.49 2.55 2.48 2.46 2.46 2.54 2.65 2.85 3.00
02/08/19 2.43 2.43 2.49 2.54 2.45 2.43 2.44 2.53 2.63 2.82 2.97
02/11/19 2.44 2.45 2.51 2.55 2.48 2.47 2.47 2.56 2.65 2.85 3.00
                                                                                                                                       Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 02/011/2019
                                                                                                                                                              


Bloomberg Monthly Economic Survey – CHANGING OPINIONS!

In its first economic release since the January FOMC meeting and the announcement of the “Powell Pause”, Bloomberg’s monthly survey of economists now sees only one rate hike in 2019 – from a previous forecast of as many as three – most likely in the third quarter of the year.  In addition, first quarter GDP forecasts have been revised downward since the previous survey due largely to effects from the most recent government shutdown.  The survey of 79 economists conducted from February 1 through February 6 is shown below.
 
Two items of note:
 
               1. The U. S. economy will expand 2.5% in 2019, 2.0% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021.
               2. The probability of a recession occurring over the next 12 months is 25% with the next recession
                    predicted to start in 2020.







 


This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value