Click Here to Print

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

MANAGING DIRECTOR:
Scott Carrithers
 
PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE:
Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty
Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris •  Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler • Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer
 Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • Chuck Honeywell • Gus Koppen

US Treasury Market
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
10/24/18 2.20 2.34 2.47 2.64 2.84 2.89 2.94 3.02 3.10 3.24 3.33
10/25/18 2.19 2.34 2.47 2.66 2.86 2.92 2.98 3.07 3.14 3.27 3.35
10/26/18 2.16 2.33 2.47 2.63 2.81 2.85 2.91 3.00 3.08 3.23 3.32
10/29/18 2.17 2.34 2.49 2.64 2.81 2.86 2.91 3.00 3.08 3.23 3.33
10/30/18 2.21 2.33 2.48 2.66 2.84 2.90 2.94 3.03 3.12 3.26 3.36
                                                                                                                                       Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 10/30/2018
 
                                          
                                Bond Market:  A Long Way From Neutral, Not ‘Crazy’
 
“A long way from neutral”, a quote from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell shortly after the Federal Reserve raised its funds last month.  FOMC began raising rates in 2015 after hitting the base zero rate in economic hard time in 2008.  The continuing economic growth shown and projected below could be viewed as support for the past and projected rate hikes.

 

 
                                                         
Last week the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) released the 3rd Quarter number of 3.50% which was above the survey of 3.30%.  At the end of this week, we have important numbers coming with the change in Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate info released this Friday, Nov 2nd.  The FOMC meeting follows on Nov. 8th and though a rate hike is not expected at this meeting there are likely hikes to follow.    The probability for another hike by the end of 2018, with the next meeting being December 19th,  currently resides at 72.3%.



                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source:  Bloomberg 10/30/2018





 


This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value