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Thursday, March 15, 2018

MANAGING DIRECTOR:
Scott Carrithers
 
PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE:
Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty
Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris •  Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler • Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer
 Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • Chuck Honeywell

US Treasury Market
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
3/8/18 1.57 1.67 1.89 2.05 2.25 2.42 2.63 2.79 2.86 3.01 3.13
3/9/18 1.57 1.67 1.89 2.03 2.27 2.45 2.65 2.82 2.90 3.04 3.16
3/12/18 1.60 1.71 1.89 2.05 2.27 2.43 2.64 2.79 2.87 3.00 3.13
3/13/18 1.64 1.73 1.90 2.03 2.26 2.41 2.62 2.77 2.84 2.98 3.10
3/14/18 1.71 1.76 1.94 2.05 2.26 2.41 2.61 2.75 2.81 2.94 3.05

                                                                                      Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 3/14/18  



FOMC Projections

The FOMC begins its March meeting on Tuesday of next week and will conclude with a rate announcement on Wednesday the 21st at 1:00pm central time.  As has been widely anticipated for some time now, the FED will in all likelihood raise rates and maintain its continued path to “gradual” tightening.  According to the fed funds futures market, there is an 84% probability of a 25 basis point increase in rates (to a range of 1.50 – 1.75) and a 16% chance of a 50 basis point bump (to a range of 1.75 – 2.00).

For those of you who are curious as to what the market anticipates over the next several months (the next two FED meetings are May 2nd and June 13th), take a look at Bloomberg’s federal funds implied probability chart shown below and plan accordingly.




This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.

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