| Tuesday, August 13, 2019 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANAGING DIRECTOR: Scott Carrithers PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE: Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris • Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler • Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • Chuck Honeywell |
| US Treasury Market | |||||||||||
| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 08/06/19 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 1.73 | 2.03 | 2.25 |
| 08/07/19 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 2.01 | 2.22 |
| 08/08/19 | 2.09 | 2.02 | 1.96 | 1.79 | 1.62 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.62 | 1.72 | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| 08/09/19 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 1.65 | 1.74 | 2.03 | 2.26 |
| 08/12/19 | 2.09 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.58 | 1.51 | 1.49 | 1.56 | 1.65 | 1.92 | 2.14 |
Bloomberg Monthly Economic Survey
According to the latest Bloomberg News survey of 71 economists conducted from August 2 through August 7th, the U.S. economy will expand at 2.3% in 2019, 1.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021.
According to the latest Bloomberg News survey of 71 economists conducted from August 2 through August 7th, the U.S. economy will expand at 2.3% in 2019, 1.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021.
Bullet Points of Note:
* The chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 35%
* Q3 of 2019 GDP is forecast at 1.8% versus the prior survey at 1.9%
* Q4 2019 GDP is forecast at 1.9% versus the prior survey at 1.8%
* 2019 CPI forecast is unchanged versus the prior survey
* 2020 CPI is forecast at 2.0% versus the prior survey at 2.1%
* The upper bound of the FED funds rate will be at 2.00% at the December 11th meeting versus
the current rate at 2.25%
In contrast to this survey, the FED funds futures market sees even steeper cuts in the overnight rate, with an upper bound in the 1.50% to 1.75% range.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value