Friday, February 15, 2019 |
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| MANAGING DIRECTOR: Scott Carrithers PORTFOLIO SALES AND SERVICE: Steve Panknin • George Morris • Jeff Goble • Chris Thompson • Sean Doherty Kevin Doyle • Lonnie Harris • Mark Tranckino • Robert Schuyler • Tom Toburen • Josh Kiefer Nicole Burczyk • Kelley Frye • Natalie Regan • Aaron Stoffer • Chuck Honeywell • Gus Koppen |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 02/08/19 | 2.43 | 2.43 | 2.49 | 2.54 | 2.45 | 2.43 | 2.44 | 2.53 | 2.63 | 2.82 | 2.97 |
| 02/11/19 | 2.44 | 2.45 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.48 | 2.47 | 2.47 | 2.56 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 3.00 |
| 02/12/19 | 2.42 | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 2.48 | 2.49 | 2.58 | 2.68 | 2.87 | 3.02 |
| 02/13/19 | 2.42 | 2.44 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.53 | 2.52 | 2.53 | 2.61 | 2.71 | 2.89 | 3.04 |
| 02/14/19 | 2.45 | 2.43 | 2.51 | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2.56 | 2.66 | 2.85 | 3.01 |
The Hippocratic Oath
The Hippocratic Oath taken by doctors states “First, do no harm”. Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve seem to be adopting a similar approach to the economy. The Fed's position following the December meeting is one of wait and see before any further interest rate hikes.
In January, the Conference Board reported that the Present Situation Index (Green), how consumers view their situation currently, and the Confidence Expectations Index (Gold), indicating how consumers view their future economic outlook (6 months), are at the widest spread differential since early 2000. The disparity is even wider than in 2007. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital highlighted this disparity as an indicator pointing to a slowdown in future economic activity. We got another surprise yesterday with retail sales for December coming in at -1.2%, the largest drop in 9 years for the holiday period.
Keeping in mind that the consumer is 70% of GDP, is a portion of your portfolio positioned to take advantage of lower rates?
In January, the Conference Board reported that the Present Situation Index (Green), how consumers view their situation currently, and the Confidence Expectations Index (Gold), indicating how consumers view their future economic outlook (6 months), are at the widest spread differential since early 2000. The disparity is even wider than in 2007. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital highlighted this disparity as an indicator pointing to a slowdown in future economic activity. We got another surprise yesterday with retail sales for December coming in at -1.2%, the largest drop in 9 years for the holiday period.
Keeping in mind that the consumer is 70% of GDP, is a portion of your portfolio positioned to take advantage of lower rates?
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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