|
Thursday, June 14, 2018 |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
|
US Treasury Market |
|||||||||||
| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 6/07/18 | 1.78 | 1.94 | 2.12 | 2.31 | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.77 | 2.88 | 2.93 | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| 6/08/18 | 1.78 | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.77 | 2.88 | 2.93 | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| 6/11/18 | 1.82 | 1.94 | 2.11 | 2.32 | 2.52 | 2.66 | 2.80 | 2.91 | 2.96 | 3.02 | 3.10 |
| 6/12/18 | 1.81 | 1.92 | 2.10 | 2.31 | 2.54 | 2.67 | 2.81 | 2.91 | 2.96 | 3.02 | 3.09 |
| 6/13/18 | 1.82 | 1.94 | 2.09 | 2.35 | 2.59 | 2.71 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 2.98 | 3.04 | 3.10 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 06/13/2018
Bloomberg Monthly Economic Survey
Released just this past Friday (June 8th) and shown in the table below are the latest economic estimates of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from June 1st through the 7th. And although the FOMC announced another 25 basis point rate hike yesterday, this move was highly anticipated and effectively already priced into these projections.
Three items of note:
- 2nd quarter 2018 GDP growth was forecast at 3.3% versus 3.1% in the May survey. This would be the highest quarter-over-quarter figure since 3rd quarter 2014.
- The U.S. economy is expected to expand 2.9% in 2018, 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.
- The chances of a recession occurring over the next 12 month period is predicted to be just 17%
| 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | AVG | AVG | AVG | |
| 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| GDP Annualized | 3.30% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.40% | 2.90% | 2.50% | 1.80% |
| Previous survey | 3.10% | 3.00% | 2.70% | 2.40% | 2.80% | 2.40% | 1.90% |
| Consumer spending | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.60% | 2.40% | 2.10% |
| Previous survey | 2.90% | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.10% |
| Core PCE Prices YOY% | 1.90% | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.20% |
| Previous survey | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.10% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.90% | 3.70% | 3.80% |
| Previous survey | 3.90% | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.90% | 3.70% | 3.80% |
| 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | |
| 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | |
| Fed funds,lower bound | 1.75% | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| Previous survey | 1.75% | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| Fed funds,higher bound | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Previous survey | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Three-month libor | 2.34% | 2.50% | 2.63% | 2.75% | 2.90% | 3.07% | 3.15% |
| Previous survey | 2.35% | 2.55% | 2.67% | 2.83% | 2.99% | 3.12% | 3.23% |
| Two-year note | 2.50% | 2.63% | 2.75% | 2.86% | 2.98% | 3.10% | 3.15% |
| Previous survey | 2.50% | 2.65% | 2.80% | 2.90% | 3.00% | 3.11% | 3.20% |
| Ten-year note | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.20% | 3.27% | 3.30% | 3.40% | 3.47% |
| Previous survey | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.17% | 3.25% | 3.30% | 3.42% | 3.47% |
| Source: Bloomberg | |||||||
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
•Not FDIC Insured •No Bank Guarantee •May Lose Value