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Thursday, September 13, 2018 |
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MANAGING DIRECTOR: |
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US Treasury Market |
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| Date | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 7 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | 30 yr |
| 9/06/18 | 1.98 | 2.13 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.64 | 2.71 | 2.76 | 2.83 | 2.88 | 2.98 | 3.06 |
| 9/07/18 | 1.98 | 2.14 | 2.30 | 2.53 | 2.71 | 2.78 | 2.82 | 2.89 | 2.94 | 3.03 | 3.11 |
| 9/10/18 | 1.98 | 2.14 | 2.32 | 2.54 | 2.73 | 2.78 | 2.83 | 2.89 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 3.09 |
| 9/11/18 | 2.02 | 2.15 | 2.31 | 2.55 | 2.76 | 2.83 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.98 | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| 9/12/18 | 2.01 | 2.16 | 2.33 | 2.56 | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.87 | 2.93 | 2.97 | 3.04 | 3.11 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of 09/12/2018
Bloomberg Monthly Economic Survey
According to FED funds futures implied probabilities, there is a 97.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike in the overnight rate at the upcoming FED meeting on September 26th and a 75.6% probability of another quarter point bump at the December 19th meeting. This is what the market thinks and where market makers place significant monetary bets.
But what do the leading U. S. economists think regarding the FED funds rate and several other key economic measures as we move forward? Well, released just this morning and shown in the table below are the latest economic estimates of 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from September 7th through the 12th.
Two items of note:
- The U.S. economy will expand 2.9% in 2018, 2.5% in 2019 and 2.00% in 2020.
- Chance of recession happening over the next 12 months is 15 percent.
| 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | AVG | AVG | AVG | |
| 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| GDP Annualized | 3.00% | 2.80% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.90% | 2.50% | 2.00% |
| Previous survey | 3.00% | 2.80% | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.90% | 2.50% | 2.00% |
| Consumer spending | 2.90% | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.20% |
| Previous survey | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.20% |
| Core PCE Prices YOY% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.20% |
| Previous survey | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.20% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.60% | 3.90% | 3.60% | 3.80% |
| Previous survey | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.60% | 3.90% | 3.70% | 3.80% |
| 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | |
| 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Fed funds,lower bound | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| Previous survey | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| Fed funds,higher bound | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Previous survey | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Three-month libor | 2.39% | 2.65% | 2.85% | 3.01% | 3.11% | 3.17% | 3.24% |
| Previous survey | 2.43% | 2.64% | 2.80% | 3.00% | 3.14% | 3.17% | 3.27% |
| Two-year note | 2.70% | 2.84% | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.15% | 3.20% | 3.25% |
| Previous survey | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.94% | 3.04% | 3.15% | 3.20% | 3.30% |
| Ten-year note | 2.95% | 3.10% | 3.20% | 3.28% | 3.30% | 3.39% | 3.40% |
| Previous survey | 3.03% | 3.10% | 3.21% | 3.30% | 3.38% | 3.48% | 3.53% |
| Source: Bloomberg | |||||||
This information is intended for institutional investors only. The material provided in this document/presentation is for informational purposes only and is intended solely for private use. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
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